Ep. 206 - Why You Overthink Decisions (What Your Brain Is Actually Doing)

 Why do small decisions sometimes feel bigger than they are? In this episode, we explore why your brain turns simple choices into mental marathons—imagining outcomes, predicting problems, and over complicating what’s actually in front of you. Learn how to quiet the mental noise and make decisions with more clarity and less emotional weight. 

Transcript

Why You Overthink Decisions (What Your Brain Is Actually Doing)

When was the last time you had a decision in front of you that was actually complicated? 
Not just one that felt complicated. A real complex choice with no clear answer.

If you’re like most people, when you slow down and think about it, the answer is probably: not that often.

Most of our decisions are pretty straightforward. 
Go or don’t go. Say yes or say no. Try it or skip it.

So why does deciding feel so hard so often?

That’s what we’re going to explore today.

The Bottom Line on Top of this episode is that when a decision feels heavy, it’s usually not the decision itself that’s the problem. It’s the story your brain has already started telling about what might happen next.

Let’s use an example for this.

Let’s say you get invited to a group dinner. It’s at a restaurant you’ve been wanting to try. You know (and like) several of the people going, but you don’t know everyone. The decision is one of two things: go or don’t go.

Mmmm, but that’s not how your brain sees it. 
It fast-forwards. It starts running through scenarios. What if it’s really fun? What if it’s really awkward? What if you’re really tired by then? What if you go and wish you’d stayed home? What if you skip it and miss something great?

And before you’ve even decided, you’re already emotionally reacting to the outcomes that haven’t even happened.

This is different from being indecisive. This is when your brain is doing all the extra credit work. 

Your brain is designed as a prediction machine. It’s constantly generating possible futures, filling in gaps, running simulations.

It doesn’t wait for things to happen. It tries to get ahead of them.

And in a lot of ways, it’s running its own version of artificial intelligence. It’s using past patterns and stories to forecast outcomes before they even occur. 

But here’s the catch: just like actual AI, your brain can sound incredibly confident and still be completely wrong.

And it’s not just generating one possible future. It's generating a ton of them. What if this is great? What if it’s a waste of time? What if there’s traffic? What if I say the wrong thing? What if I miss out on meeting really great people? 

Okay, fine, it’s just doing its brain thing. 
But all those possibilities turn into emotional appetizers. So now you’re not just making a decision between two things. You’re emotionally reacting to a whole set of futures your brain is showing you like movie trailers.

Psychologists call this outcome bias. It’s our tendency to judge the quality of a decision based on how something turns out. So, if you run a red light but nothing happens, that’s probably a good decision…or was it? Because good things can come from bad decisions and vice versa.

So we tell ourselves a story in hindsight. We go to that dinner, have a great time, and think: that was such a good call. 
We go and it’s awkward, and we think: I knew I shouldn’t have gone. 

The decision itself didn’t change. Only the outcome did.

And here’s another layer. We’re wired to give more weight to what could go wrong than what could go right. Not because we’re trying to be a pessimist. Because your brain thinks it’s protecting you. What it’s actually doing is making a simple decision feel like an emotional obstacle course.

Let’s try another example. One we probably do every day. 
Think about a text message you haven’t responded to yet.

The actual act of replying? Maybe a minute or two. 

But your brain isn’t focused on that one minute of action. 
It’s trying to run the entire conversation before you even start typing. 
How are they going to respond? What will I say to that if they say it that way? Has too much time already passed, should I apologize? 

You’re already exhausted by the imaginary conversation that your brain already had.

That’s the weight of decisions that we’re talking about. Not the decision itself. It’s the stories layered on top of it.

So what can you do when scenarios start to stop decisions? 
There are three quick ways that you can reset.

First, separate the decision from the outcome.
Sounds easy right? Ask yourself: is this a reasonable choice given what I know right now? Not: will this turn out perfectly? Because we can’t control outcomes. We can only make decisions with the information in front of us right now.

Second, notice when you’ve stopped deciding something and started predicting.
Those are two different brain activities. Deciding is: here’s what I know, here’s what I’ll do. Predicting is: if this then that. Here is every way it could go. Even just naming it, helps interrupt it.

Third, come back to what’s actually in front of you.
Not a whole imaginary timeline. Not all the possible futures. Just the next step. What’s the one thing that moves this forward? Start there.

Every decision includes uncertainty. That’s not a flaw in you or in the process. That’s just how decisions work. You make the best call you can at the time, and then when the outcome arrives  it arrives.

Experience builds judgment over time. Patterns matter more than any single moment. But when deciding, the goal isn’t certainty. It’s clarity on what’s in front of you at that moment.

So if you’ve been sitting with something lately that is feeling heavy, revisit it to see: Is it the choice itself? Or is it everything your brain has already added to it?

So go ahead, make the decision. Let the outcome arrive when it arrives. Your brain doesn’t have to live it twice.

And here’s a final thing to remember: you can always change your mind. You just have to make up your mind first.